3 Predictions, hip-hop style

Prediction 1: Young Jeezy dropped this past Tuesday...He'll sell 200K the first week and 50K the second week.



Prediction 2: Nas drops next Tuesday...He'll sell 300K the first week and sell 350K the second week.

Prediction 3: In 2007, labels releasing hip-hop CDs will see that they are no match for the power of the InterWeb and the new form of previewing CDs, the download. Once record companies realize that we are all going to preview these albums through "leaked" versions (whether the versions turn out to be the actual store version or not) before we go out and drop our $10-$15 on a CD, that'll be the first step in record sales going back up.

Reasoning: Diddy tried to garner the strength of the web and use it to his advantage by going extra-hard (no Loon) on myspace promoting his album, but it didn't quite work. In a way, Jay-Z tried the same thing with the "ode-to-Jigga" on the MTV.com site a few weeks before his album dropped (sidenote: How wack is the MTV site? Ill.). That, combined with the ridiculous amount of Jay-Z coverage and marketing in the month leading up to his album release, was ONLY enough for him to move 650K in his first week.

With the amount of promotion he got for his CD, I think that anything less than platinum the first week should be a disappointment. If Jay can't move 800K the first week with that much promotion, how is any other artist with 1/5 of that promotion going to move anywhere remotely close to 500K in the first week? And if you've paid attention, you've noticed that since the first week, Jay's dropped off every week by an astounding amount.

I think the decline in Jay-Z CD sales should be a wake-up call for the rest of hip-hop. Think about it. This guy went on an unprecedented promotional campaign for a rapper. Videos, beer commercials, MTV specials, NBA commercials, 7 concerts in a day, etc. Yet he still did not move more than 800K the first week!

So, after listening to Nas CD, I feel bad for him already. This album is not going to do extravagant numbers the first week, but it's not because of the quality of work. The CD is GREAT! Better than Kingdom Come, but you know un-retired rappers get better promotion. But I believe that the quality of the CD Nas is dropping will cause a word-of-mouth promotional campaign among hip-hop lovers like one never seen before. Seriously, if you listen to this album and you don't like it, then you don't like hip-hop or you really have been brainwashed by the influx of coke-rap, dance-rap, or pop-hop. Just know that on December 19, it'll be resurrection day for hip-hop.